The Stupidity of the Texas GOP.
One of the platforms of the Republican Party in Texas is a referendum on secession. This just goes to show that the more conservative you are, the less you think things through and consider the outcomes. I'm sure there are idiotic Texans out there that feel that an independent Texas would be some sort of white supremacist nirvana where all white supremacist dreams would come true. The reality could actually be catastrophic - to the citizens of Texas.
I'm sure the Texas GOP imagines a very peaceful and orderly transfer of power, just like in 1861. More information can be found in this link.
One of the first effects would be the instant unemployment of 140,000+ federal employees and 26,000 postal employees, and the withdrawal of U.S military personnel, all of whom contribute greatly to the economy.
If the either the U.S. or Texas initiated hostilities, Texas would be at a disadvantage as it is within striking distance of USAF bases in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Additionally, there are USAF bases within Texas itself. Texas would certainly experience "shock and awe"!
Human casualties could be minimized by striking at infrastructure targets such as the power grid, interstates, and railroads. The mismanaged Texas power grid is especially vulnerable as it is unreliable during severe weather conditions. This is because the power grid's primary purpose is to provide profits for the few, rather than reliable power for the citizenry.
Texas would also have to deal with III Corps and the 1st Cavalry Division stationed at Ft. Hood. Additionally, 1st Armored Division is stationed at Ft. Bliss near El Paso. Ft. Sill and Ft. Polk are also a short distance from the boundaries of Texas. Against this would be the Texas State Guard and perhaps a batallion of Gravy Seals.
At sea, the US Navy could easily blockade Texas ports causing great economic hardship to the citizens of Texas. For this reason, the ports of Houston, Beaumont, and Corpus Christi could be left unscathed as they would be needed during the reoccupation to kick start the Texas economy back up.
The following is just a guess on my part. I have no idea how this scenario would actually play out in the event of a hostile or peaceful transition. Money!
Without a doubt, Texas separatists envision a white supremacist state with a Christofascist government. The newly independent Texas would surely be resisted by many while it's borders with the US would be choked by refugees fleeing the state.
It's also likely that the US Republican Party would oppose secession. The immediate effect for the GOP would be the loss of two conservative senators and several conservative representatives.
Money is power and influence and a newly independent Texas would have no cash. Texas banks, doubtless have large sums of cash. In a preemptive move, the Federal Reserve banks in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio could move as much U.S. currency to secure locations in the U.S. or the cash reserves could be destroyed to prevent them from being captured by Texas. The U.S. Government could also freeze assets and accounts in American banks operating Texas.
In the unlikely event that the U.S. would accept secession, military bases would be stripped of equipment or have facilities and equipment rendered inoperable by loyal military members.
Expectations:
This is the current map of Texas.
Doubtless, some greedy, power hungry Texans would love to see Texas capture additional territory imagined by the 1836 Republic of Texas. The unrealized conquest of additional territory is sometimes referred to as "unredeemed Texas". That's not going to happen. Any moves by Texas to aquire additional territory would be opposed by overwhelming firepower.
In a peaceful transfer scenario, Texas would now be vulnerable to annexation by Mexico. Mexico never recognized the independence of Texas. Mexico gave up any claims to Texas after the 1848 war against the United States. Since Texas would no longer be part of the U.S., treaty stipulations regarding Texas would be null and void.
Mexico could spin war against Texas as "pay back" for 1836. This would certainly motivate the Mexican population.
This would be due to the fact that although Gen. Antonio Lopez de Santa Ana, signed a treaty accepting Texas independence, the Mexican Congress rejected it. Unfortunately for Santa Ana, there were no funds to continue the war against Texas.
Although nominally independent, Texas borders were not firmy established. Large swaths of southern Texas were disputed territory.
In 1842, there were two invasions by the Mexican Army. They were expeditions designed weaken the Texas government San Antonio was captured both times.
The Armada Mexicana could easily blockade Texas ports. The Mexican Navy is the 18th largest in the world, but is considered an effective fighting force. It could easily stop commercial traffic coming in and out of Texas ports.
The Cuerpo de Infantería de Marina (Mexican Marines) would likely be deployed to take key port facilites
A presumed Texas naval force would likely only consist of coastal patrol vessels and of no real threat.
Vast stretches of western Texas are sparsely populated. The Mexican Army could easily occupy and control the largely vacant trans-Pecos establishing bases for the Mexican Air Force, which would allow for air strikes deep into Texas.
The Ejercito Mexicano consists of three corps, each composed of several battalion and regiments each.
The army consists of about 412, 000 active troops with 99,000 in reserve. There are numerous points where the army can cross. Of primary concern might be in Del Rio, TX. There, in what would be the former USAF Laughlin AFB, only miles from the border.
Once having crossed in sufficient force, the expeditionary force could roll down US 277, a broadband modern highway winding through the Texas Hill Country. In less than 2 hours they drive through mostly unpopulated region and arrive at Sonora, TX. Once there, they can take the local airport. There also is Interstate 10 and would then have quick access to points east and west.
No doubt, Republican fat cats would envision a "fight to the last man" attitude. The likely reality is that US border checkpoints would be overwhelmed with formerly American refugees flooding the frontier. The irony is that they would be seeking refuge in the country they no longer wanted to be a part of.
Once captured, local governments would be dissolved, and martial law would be established.
Likely all forms of media would be shut down. Radio, tv, print, cellular, and internet would be shut down, until they could be be established as Mexican corporations. Radio and TV would comeback on but with new call signs. All Mexican radio and TV call signs start with X. In this new system KENS KHOU, WFAA, KRIS, WOAI, and KVIA would become XKENS, XKHOU, XWFAA, XKRIS, XWOAI, andX KVIA.
Schools would reopen as soon as possible. The main changes would be with new bilingual teachers. Spanish would be the new primary language. Mexican curriculum would be taught. The bright side would there would no longer be standardized testing.
The map of Texas would also likely change. In order to prevent the notion of another uprising, Texas would likely be subdivided into smaller subdivision based on older Spanish a and Mexican maps. The name of Texas would be erased from the maps. In the future, "Texan" would no longer be an identity.
Texas independence would be short lived as there would be no friendly nations nearby that would want to lend support to Texas. Which nearby country would lend aid to a white supremacist state?
Texas would surely not get aid from the US. Any please for aid would be answered with some form of "fuck around and find out!"
They are also not likely to get aid from Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, or Asia.
They're only hope would be aid from the Russian Federation or the People's Republic of China. In each of these cases, there would be strings attached to aid.
Texas "independence" would now be tied to foreign subservience. Russian or Chinese might be the new official second language. Russian or Chinese bases on Texas soil staffed by "advisors" would be the new reality.
The grandiose dreams of Texas separatist would end up with a new map of Texas. A Texas that makes up a large portion of reclaimed Mexico.
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